Black Gold: just black now.

Now the title may seem preposterous, I agree. I mean how could the demand for oil fall when the world’s population is increasing, the number of people owning a vehicle is also increasing, the industries and factories are also expanding at a rapid rate among other factors, so then how can the demand for the most essential fuel of them all decline? Here’s how.

  The dawn of the oil age in its full sense began only in the 1860’s after an oil strike in Pennsylvania. The first barrels of crude oil fetched $18. These were used to make kerosene. Other liquids that were produced in the process were too unstable and were either burned or dumped. However a few years later the combustible engine was developed and the unwanted petrol and diesel did not go to waste.

  Since then the demand for oil has only gone up mainly due to increasing air, sea and road travel and three fifths of oil ends up in fuel tanks. Many believe that growing number of rich Indians and Chinese will only drive the demand for oil to new highs.

   However there is certain evidence that suggests to the contrary and that oil demands are close to their peak after which they will decline. It is not the problem with the supply but to many people’s surprise it’s the demand which will now fall. In the more developed nations of the world the demand for oil has already peaked and has fallen since 2005. Even allowing for the growing number of rich behind the wheel in New Delhi and Beijing two revolutions in technology will dampen the worlds thirst for the black gold.

   The first revolution was led by George Mitchell who championed fracking as a way to release huge supplies of “unconventional” gas from shale beds. This along with vast new innovations of conventional gas has recently helped increase the world’s reserves from fifty to two hundred years. In America where shale gas already billows from the ground, liquefied or compressed fas is finding its way on the roads. Even in India all the metros led by the capital Delhi have adopted Compressed Natural Gas and LPG as an alternative. Public transport in New Delhi which includes a large fleet of buses and auto rickshaws are on compulsory CNG and private vehicles and taxis too are on an increasing basis adopting to CNG. In the not too distant future gas  could also replace oil in ships and aircrafts, thus displacing a few extra million barrels of oil a day by 2020.

The other and often less recognized change is in automotive technology. Rapid advances in engine and vehicle design threaten oils dominance. Petrol and diesel engines are becoming ever more stingy. Vehicles are now becoming lighter which increases their efficiency and also vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel cells and increasing popularity of electric cars will also take its toll on demand for oil.

  A couple of countervailing factors could kick in to increase consumption. Firstly the Saudis who crontol 11% of output and have the most spare capacity, may decide to push out more, lowering prices and thus obviously increasing demand. Secondly if declining demand pushes down the oil price, drivers may turn back to gas guzzling cars as in the 90’s.

  Even if the demand for oil merely stabilizes, it will have important consequences. The environment should be a bit better off as there will be less carbon di oxide. The corporate world will too have dynamic changes. Currently Exon Mobil vies with Apple as the wolrds leading companies. Yet Exon is more vulnerable than it looks as Big Oil will most definitely have a future a s big gas but with not the same amount of profits.

    Many leading economists however think the biggest demand for declining demand could be geopolitical. Oil underpins Vladimir Putin’s kleptocracy. The Kremlin will find it harder to throw its weight if its main source of patronage is diminishing. The Saudi princes have relied on high oil prices to balance their budgets while paying for lavish social programmes to placate the restless youth that has taken to the streets elsewhere. Their large financial reserves can plug the gap for a while but the chances of revolution will be much greater. Most importantly if America is more dependent on gas then it is unlikely to be as indulgent in the future towards Arab allies.  The black gold has caused many a conflict in its rise, it will do so in its fall too, however most people will welcome the change.

Thank you.

I have been in a serious relationship for more than two years now. There have been good times, there have been bad times. There have been times when you are so in love that it’s like a dream and then there are times when it all goes down the drain with frustration levels reaching an all time high. So how does this all work out? To be very honest more than 90% of the times it’s the girl, males have a very low maturity level and an even lower sensibility level. So here I am thanking the girl who is my world, my life, my best friend and my universe.

    Firstly the most important thing which sustains our relationship is that she is my best friend. I can talk to her about anything ranging from sexual fantasies to which party should rule the nation, from which movies to watch to what should be the colour of the shirt I am going to wear.  Another thing which adds to our chemistry is the fact that we are never afraid to disagree, infact we disagree on most issues. I remember her saying once “you purposely always disagree with me to irritate me and then laugh.”(Though it is true at times) mostly its not true. We disagree on the strangest of issues and vehemently argue on them. Issues like who was at fault on the road or on the characteristics of a certain person. I vividly remember we once argued on why its called “once upon a time in Mumbai dobora” with her saying that once upon a time can only happen once. We even argue on intellectual topics like who is a better PM candidate, Rahul Gandhi or Modi. These arguments are usually pretty heated and even though usually I concede defeat when they reach a boiling point, she knows inside her mind that my stance has not changed one bit.

    Secondly I would like to thank her for doing crazy things with me and not shying away from being herself. We have travelled in an animal ambulance full of puppies. We have bunked college to watch a movie together just randomly. We have gone to places like the planetarium or the Akshardham temple. We do stuff like photo bomb random people in malls or walk between couples holding hands and walking. She is bar far the craziest person I have ever come across and can surely say that no one can attain a level of crazy higher than hers.

  Thirdly but also very importantly is that we don’t forget the romance part. We know the line between overdose of romance and romance (to be honest she knows it better than me, if it were upto me I’d be romantic 24*7 but then she doesn't see herself through my eyes. If she would, she would know I am staring at god’s most exquisite creation.)  We go on romantic dinner dates to nice and quiet places with nice music in the background. Oh and how she looks on those dates. Alluring would be an understatement. I remember once we went for dinner, she wore a blue dress, a hint of kajal in her eyes which was not too much but just perfect.  Her wavy hair falling down beside her glowing face till a bit below her shoulders. It was an enchanting feast for my eyes. These dinners are usually followed by coffee and a long drive. These are the days which I honestly look forward to the most beyond all other things. (can’t wait for the next one.)

The list can go on and on but one thing I mustn't forget to thank her for is for bearing with a guy like me. I tend to lose my cool (pms she calls it) when I need not and then raise my voice unnecessarily. (Not that I don’t regret it later, but still. I am a bit hard of hearing and she has to repeat herself many times and even though she hides it most of the times I know she is understandably irritated. I tend to speak at supersonic speeds and thus I have to repeat myself most of the times. I am pretty slow so I need explaining to the simplest of statements and above all I have been told that my jokes have the power to kill, so for dealing with this among many other things I thank her.

  Thank you for standing by me when most wouldn’t , thank you for caring for me when I needed care but not sugar coating anything you said in light of the long run. Thank you for surviving my jokes, most don’t.  I love you straight to my last breath and I promise you can always count on me, you will have me always. En siempre.